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Case Study
How Strathcona County's Station Plan Hit Within 1% Accuracy 5 Years Later
Strathcona County Emergency Services (SCES) turned to Darkhorse Emergency in 2009 to help validate the need for a third urban fire station — and has since used predictive modeling to keep station plans on track with ongoing community growth.
20%+
Population growth (2001–2009)
<1%
Prediction accuracy variance
3
Future station locations identified
CHALLENGE
Optimizing Resources in a Growing City
Between 2001 and 2009, Strathcona County's population grew by more than 20%. The two urban fire stations in Sherwood Park were struggling to keep up with call volume increases and the large response area. Performance was suffering and growth showed no signs of slowing.
SOLUTION
Evidence-Based Decision Making
Diagnosed historical and current response performance
Modeled impact of growth on future response performance
Determined when and where to build stations to optimize current and future performance
01 — Taking the Case
Illustrating the Pressing Need for Additional Resources
SCES leaned on Darkhorse Deployment predictive modeling capabilities to clearly illustrate its pressing need for additional resources and help set the stage for ongoing forecasting and long-term station planning.
The work started with a historical data analysis that showed conclusively that the two existing stations in Sherwood Park would not be sufficient to meet response targets — and that Strathcona County needed a third urban station sooner rather than later.
02 — Addressing the "What Ifs?"
Finding the Optimal Station Location
SCES used Darkhorse Deployment to determine the best location for the proposed station. The model incorporated a road network forecast, a drive time analysis, and a projection of call volumes and call locations 15 years into the future.
With a click of a button, SCES could see — and show decision makers — the impact and tradeoffs associated with choosing different locations. Everyone involved could ask, and instantly answer, all their "what if" questions.
03 — Onward with Confidence
Predictions Within 1% of Actual Results
SCES opened its third urban station in 2013. A year later, the service was pleased to see that the projected impact on performance was within 1% of what had been predicted five years earlier.
SCES continues to use Darkhorse tools to monitor and validate performance, creating three different development plans with future station locations based on different growth scenarios. By regularly updating forecasts with the most recent census data, SCES can see when and where performance targets are in jeopardy — and adjust timing accordingly.
"When presenting to municipalities it wasn't me saying 'I think we should build a station here.' It was me saying: 'Mathematically, this is the optimal location for the next 50 years.' There's really no room to argue that and it makes their decision super-easy. And it makes my presentation really fun."
Jeff Hutton — Fire Chief
Emergency service that won't miss a beat.
With the ability to consistently monitor development plans against actual population data, SCES can be confident that future station development will take place at the right time and in the right places.
Secured stakeholder buy-in for a third urban station in the optimal location
Monitors and validates the positive impact on response performance of the new station
Identified optimal locations for its next three stations
Can strategically schedule capital investments with a clear view to service level impacts
Has established an evidence-based culture that supports better decision making
"The Darkhorse team understands analytics at a high level. They developed an incredible sense of our needs through professional inquisitiveness and providing us with clear descriptions of the work they were doing."
Jeff Hutton — Fire Chief